And here's part 3 of my Oscar analysis for 2010! Now i'm going to look at what's happening with Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, although I think these are set in stone at this point. Anyway, onward with the predictions!
The Nominees for Actor in a Supporting Role are...
Matt Damon; Invitcus
Woody Harrelson; The Messenger
Christopher Plummer; The Last Station
Stanley Tucci; The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz; Inglourious Basterds
State of the Race: Besides the fact that after decades of amazing work by one of the most respected and celebrated performers in Hollywood, Chirstopher Plummer (finally) is nominated for an Academy Award, this race is done. It was over when Christoph Waltz won the acting prize at the Cannes Film Festival last year, and he hasn't looked back since.
And the Oscar goes to...Waltz. For the third straight year, a villain will have nabbed the Best Supporting Actor trophy (2008 with Javier Bardem in No Country For Old Men and in 2009 with the late Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight). Since Cannes, Waltz has gone on to collect trophies at the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, the Critics Choice, and the BAFTAs. If you don't believe he'll win, you're nuts.
And the Oscar should go to...See above. Also let me add that Waltz's Hands Landa is the best character Quentin Tarantino has created since Samuel l. Jackson played Bible-thumpin' hitman Jules Winfield in Pulp Fiction and the best Nazi soldier since Ralph Finnes chilling and menacing take on Amor Goeth in Spielberg's Schindler's List.
And the Nominees for Actress in a Supporting Role are...
Penelope Cruz; Nine
Maggie Gyllenhaal; Crazy Heart
Vera Farminga; Up In the Air
Mo'Nique; Precious: Based On the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Anna Kendrick; Up In the Air
State of the Race: Again, what freaking race? Penelope won it last year for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, so she's out. Farmiga and Kendrick were both excellent in Up In the Air, but they'll cancel each other out. That leaves us with Gyllenhall with her soulful performance in Crazy Heart, but she doesn't hold a candle to Mo'Nique's revelatory role as the abusive mother from hell.
And the Oscar goes to...Mo'Nique. Much like with Waltz for Supporting Actor and Bigelow for Director, the trio have swept up any and all trophies they have been nominated for. Even Oscar isn't this empty-headed to snub a sure-fire thing.
And the Oscar should go to...See the past two above.
And here's the recap of my predictions, if you've missed any of them:
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will Win: The Dude
Should Win: George Clooney
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe in a tie
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Should Win: Mo'Nique