Wednesday, February 7, 2007

Cedarfords Risky Job? Sitting behind a keyboard and writing long ass boring post!


Pity you don't know how to do basic math. Nor get that some of us do "risky jobs, sports" as a personal preference - while others do safe ones.

600 a year in losses in military since 9/11 is less than the military deaths Jimmy Carter had in his 4 years that were utterly uncared about and uncommented on until Regan's safety reforms and modernization cut death rates by 40% by the end of his term.

Nor is it valid to etrapolate risk back to the 300 million, as in no war is risk spread equally or assumed proportionate. (Otherwise, you get dumb analogies that spread specific risk to the gen population - WWII's 420,000 casualties were "like" 4,500,000 Americans dying - except the risk was not there) More accurately, risk is compared to the troops 18-25 year old peers hard drinking, heavy driving, motorcycle riding, risky job taking, liable to be at far greater murder anf imprisonment risk, dangerous sport-doing dudes. By that measure, serving your nation is twice as risky as being a civilian 18-25 year old.

Less 18-25 year old deaths from combat than motorcycles. Or from opting to be a drug dealer, truck driver, work in heavy construction than serve your country.

If we look at the 200,000 though (add naval and air and Kuwait assets considered in the combat zone) - 600 dead from disease, accidents, and KIA is a 0.3% chance a year. 300,000,000 in America with 2.2 million deaths a year is a 0.73% chance of dying each year from all causes.


No comments:

Total Pageviews